Articles
WV Executive Magazine (Spring 2007)
Focus on the Future Dr. Julie Norman
If this nation had only one thing it should be concerned about, it would be the fate of our
economy. Demographers are projecting severe labor shortages in the next 10 years. The
startling fact is that we will have 25 percent fewer people in our workforce by 2015 than we do
today. This decline in workers is largely due to baby boomers retiring. Close to 8,000 people
turn 60 every day, meaning that almost 3 million workers per year are either preparing to
retire or rethinking their work arrangements. The U.S. Census projects that 78 million baby
boomers will retire with only 46 million Generation X and Y workers available to replace
them. That’s a gap of 32 million workers in the next decade that creates a severe problem
for our economy. In 2008 we enter an unprecedented period in history where the generations
coming into the workforce are smaller in number and less educated than the ones before
them.
This looming labor force crisis is imminent and immediate. Those retiring include over half
of our science and engineering workforce; at the federal level, the Department of Energy, for
example, will have 70 percent of its workforce eligible for retirement next year. This decrease
in the workforce is further exacerbated by the fact that the population is living longer and
demanding more goods and services. What will this do to our economy? You might be
thinking about the low unemployment rates we’ve enjoyed for the past several years and
assuming that all is good, but make no mistake: unemployment rates are no longer an
indicator of an economy’s health. While our unemployment rates remain relatively low
despite the thousands of jobs lost in manufacturing, we are replacing those jobs with low
paying service jobs. Jobs ARE being created in groups of one and two at a time, otherwise
we wouldn’t be seeing the low unemployment rates that we do. But take a look at what the
new jobs are. They’re in telemarketing, massage therapy, truck driving and certified nursing
assistants. Can we really build a new economy on those occupations? The answer is
clearly NO. For a community to thrive economically, more than a third of all jobs must be
economic based. In other words, the goods and services being produced must be sold
outside the local economy.
The Skills Gap
Then there is the skills gap. While the skills gap will be a crisis in 2010, the lack of basic
skills, technical skills and competencies is a very real issue right now. Businesses report a
serious decline in the skill levels of new workers today and the training costs associated with
making them productive is exorbitant. Every generation wants the next to have more, but for
the first time in history our children are facing a lower standard of living than their parents and
grandparents. As other nations continue to become educated, competent and willing to work
for lower wages, American citizens fall well behind the curve.
It’s deja vu all over again. In December 2006, the New Commission on the Skills of the
American Workforce, a high-powered bi-partisan assembly of education secretaries and
business, government and other education leaders released a blueprint on rethinking
American education from pre-K to 12 and beyond to better prepare students to thrive in the
global economy. But consider this: recommendations for drastic reform were also made in
the 1983 publication “A Nation At Risk” by the President’s Blue Ribbon Commission on
Education 24 years ago, yet most have not been implemented to the degree intended. Most
of our schools still only offer 17 hours of instruction per week and allow nearly 3 months of
summer vacation—a model that was designed to met the needs of an Agrarian society. If
someone would read the 1983 report today, they would no doubt believe the words came
straight out of today’s news. But as usual, not much has changed with our schools or the
way we develop our workforce. Other nations have spent decades preparing their young
people and demanding excellence. With all the dramatic changes that have taken place in
the past 20 years, why has our school system remained stagnate? Unfortunately, at this
point I’m afraid trying to modify our current educational system is like rearranging the deck
chairs on the Titanic.
The parable of the boiled frog comes to mind. The parable demonstrates how a frog’s
internal sensory apparatus is geared toward sudden changes in its environment, not the
slow gradual ones. Hence, a frog placed in a pot of room temperature water with the heat
source slowly turned up will allow himself to boil. I think this is what has happened to us as
a country. We have ignored the slow gradual changes in our society and economy, even with
pleas from various commissions who have warned policy makers for many years of the risks
we now face. We’ve been in a long, slow decline educationally compared to other countries
for many years. The sad fact is that we have become a spoiled, complacent, mediocre
nation. Arrogance born out of our superpower status over the past 75 years has resulted in
ignoring other nations who have catapulted to the top. For most of the 20th century America
was a superpower not to be reckoned with, and our education system was second to none.
But while we were basking in our own superiority, others were preparing for this day. They
have caught up and even passed us by. And with the advent of technology that brought over 2
billion new workers into the American economy, the ability to capitalize on their investment in
education and succeed in a global market has been a dream come true. This country has
prided itself on the “American Dream” of achieving one’s highest potential, and for decades
that dream was achieved, but without a new culture of hard work, innovation and creativity,
America may well become the follower in the global economy.
Problems rising
There must be an increased emphasis on science, technology, engineering and math—
STEM education as it’s called. When 80 percent of manufacturers report shortages of
qualified workers because today’s graduates do not have the skills required to work in today’
s manufacturing, we have a serious problem. Our education system must provide a
continuous supply of well-educated STEM-grounded entrants into regional talent pools. This
means a greater emphasis on science, math, and technology-related programs in K-12
curricula and a greater investment in teacher education and accountability in these areas.
Aside from the reforms needed in an outdated educational system, companies who already
employ workers that will remain in the workforce need to change paradigms. The new worker
of today is also no longer satisfied with traditional workplace models. Companies need to
court their top 25 percent of workers like they would their most valuable customers. Firms
are going beyond on-site daycare facilities and gyms, to adding laundry services, auto
detailing, and other on-site services to appeal to workers with busy lives. This reaction is due
to the fact that it’s a worker’s world now. In the past, workers moved out of state to find work;
now it’s no longer necessary. Good workers are in high demand, and this trend will continue
for many years as our baby boomers leave the workforce and the best workers are
competitively recruited. The best and brightest seek higher ground by working for the most
prestigious firms or hanging their own shingle. In fact, today over 25 percent of the workforce
works from home part of the time, either because their firm allows it or because they have
chosen to work for themselves.
Creating a Qualified Work Force
As a Certified Economic Developer, I understand the competitive world of attracting new
investment and the site selection process. I also know that a qualified skilled workforce is
the number one reason for any business expansion or location decision. It’s no longer
whether a community has a union environment or whether there are tax abatements or free
land. The primary issue today is always the ability to provide a qualified workforce. Education
and training opportunities, the reduction of costs in finding or creating clusters of inter-related
firms, and the promise of continuing a workforce development effort beyond start-up is what
appeals most to businesses considering any state. Efforts to bring together education,
training and economic development have been mediocre at best.
Creativity, innovation and adaptability are the keys to a good life, and high levels of education
are going to be the only security our kids can look forward to. We must demand rigorous
academics, not just the basics of the 3 R’s, just as we were warned 24 years ago from “A
Nation At Risk.” As the mother of two adolescent boys, I am fearful of the future that lies
ahead for them. We have far more to worry about than whether or not some of our children
are left behind; we need to consider an entire generation failing to compete in a global
economy and the impact this will have on economic based industries. Meager incremental
improvements, band-aid solutions, and the potpourri of federal programs aimed at selected
populations just won’t cut it anymore. We need bold action.
Some have stepped forward. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is committed to working
with partners in communities throughout the country to transform our education system and
improve the outlook for all students. Their foundation has invested millions of dollars to serve
as a catalyst designed to foster innovative educational opportunities for our young people,
spark public engagement, and create a seamless web of support for high-quality learning
from a child’s first years through college and the workplace. They understand that we must
either train the brainpower ourselves or import it.
But what about the American dream? In order to keep it alive and well, we must make some
tough decisions regarding our education system and the way we recruit and retain workers.
Our federal and state governments must develop a performance-based culture of
accountability that is focused on educating students in a way that prepares them for the world
of work in the 21st century, without regard to bureaucracies and special interests. We also
must offer financial incentives to attract the best and brightest teachers, and bonuses to keep
the most successful, much like any business would do. In fact, I would like to personally
present a challenge to Bill Gates—to increase the American public high school graduation
rate to 90 percent by 2015 and put the U.S. back in the top five in The Trends in International
Mathematics and Science Study carried out by the International Association for the Evaluation
of Educational Achievement (currently the U.S. stands at 19 out of 21 countries,
outperforming only Cyprus and South Africa). We spend a tremendous amount of money on
education and training in this country, so why do we continue to accept mediocrity? We
should expect the same kind of return on our investment that any successful business would
expect.
With the changes in skill demands and the dramatic demographic shifts in the next few
years, the need to increase the skills and credentials of the nation’s workforce has never
been as urgent as it is today. Although the myriad of programs and services and resources
that currently exist for workforce education and training are a good beginning, they are not yet
integrated into a fully functioning system that addresses the challenges we face as a nation.
We must think broadly about the various components of the workforce education and training
system and how all of the different programs, services and incentives work together in the
common goal of helping the nation meet the skill and labor needs of today and the future.
We simply can’t afford anything less.
Focus on the Future Dr. Julie Norman
If this nation had only one thing it should be concerned about, it would be the fate of our
economy. Demographers are projecting severe labor shortages in the next 10 years. The
startling fact is that we will have 25 percent fewer people in our workforce by 2015 than we do
today. This decline in workers is largely due to baby boomers retiring. Close to 8,000 people
turn 60 every day, meaning that almost 3 million workers per year are either preparing to
retire or rethinking their work arrangements. The U.S. Census projects that 78 million baby
boomers will retire with only 46 million Generation X and Y workers available to replace
them. That’s a gap of 32 million workers in the next decade that creates a severe problem
for our economy. In 2008 we enter an unprecedented period in history where the generations
coming into the workforce are smaller in number and less educated than the ones before
them.
This looming labor force crisis is imminent and immediate. Those retiring include over half
of our science and engineering workforce; at the federal level, the Department of Energy, for
example, will have 70 percent of its workforce eligible for retirement next year. This decrease
in the workforce is further exacerbated by the fact that the population is living longer and
demanding more goods and services. What will this do to our economy? You might be
thinking about the low unemployment rates we’ve enjoyed for the past several years and
assuming that all is good, but make no mistake: unemployment rates are no longer an
indicator of an economy’s health. While our unemployment rates remain relatively low
despite the thousands of jobs lost in manufacturing, we are replacing those jobs with low
paying service jobs. Jobs ARE being created in groups of one and two at a time, otherwise
we wouldn’t be seeing the low unemployment rates that we do. But take a look at what the
new jobs are. They’re in telemarketing, massage therapy, truck driving and certified nursing
assistants. Can we really build a new economy on those occupations? The answer is
clearly NO. For a community to thrive economically, more than a third of all jobs must be
economic based. In other words, the goods and services being produced must be sold
outside the local economy.
The Skills Gap
Then there is the skills gap. While the skills gap will be a crisis in 2010, the lack of basic
skills, technical skills and competencies is a very real issue right now. Businesses report a
serious decline in the skill levels of new workers today and the training costs associated with
making them productive is exorbitant. Every generation wants the next to have more, but for
the first time in history our children are facing a lower standard of living than their parents and
grandparents. As other nations continue to become educated, competent and willing to work
for lower wages, American citizens fall well behind the curve.
It’s deja vu all over again. In December 2006, the New Commission on the Skills of the
American Workforce, a high-powered bi-partisan assembly of education secretaries and
business, government and other education leaders released a blueprint on rethinking
American education from pre-K to 12 and beyond to better prepare students to thrive in the
global economy. But consider this: recommendations for drastic reform were also made in
the 1983 publication “A Nation At Risk” by the President’s Blue Ribbon Commission on
Education 24 years ago, yet most have not been implemented to the degree intended. Most
of our schools still only offer 17 hours of instruction per week and allow nearly 3 months of
summer vacation—a model that was designed to met the needs of an Agrarian society. If
someone would read the 1983 report today, they would no doubt believe the words came
straight out of today’s news. But as usual, not much has changed with our schools or the
way we develop our workforce. Other nations have spent decades preparing their young
people and demanding excellence. With all the dramatic changes that have taken place in
the past 20 years, why has our school system remained stagnate? Unfortunately, at this
point I’m afraid trying to modify our current educational system is like rearranging the deck
chairs on the Titanic.
The parable of the boiled frog comes to mind. The parable demonstrates how a frog’s
internal sensory apparatus is geared toward sudden changes in its environment, not the
slow gradual ones. Hence, a frog placed in a pot of room temperature water with the heat
source slowly turned up will allow himself to boil. I think this is what has happened to us as
a country. We have ignored the slow gradual changes in our society and economy, even with
pleas from various commissions who have warned policy makers for many years of the risks
we now face. We’ve been in a long, slow decline educationally compared to other countries
for many years. The sad fact is that we have become a spoiled, complacent, mediocre
nation. Arrogance born out of our superpower status over the past 75 years has resulted in
ignoring other nations who have catapulted to the top. For most of the 20th century America
was a superpower not to be reckoned with, and our education system was second to none.
But while we were basking in our own superiority, others were preparing for this day. They
have caught up and even passed us by. And with the advent of technology that brought over 2
billion new workers into the American economy, the ability to capitalize on their investment in
education and succeed in a global market has been a dream come true. This country has
prided itself on the “American Dream” of achieving one’s highest potential, and for decades
that dream was achieved, but without a new culture of hard work, innovation and creativity,
America may well become the follower in the global economy.
Problems rising
There must be an increased emphasis on science, technology, engineering and math—
STEM education as it’s called. When 80 percent of manufacturers report shortages of
qualified workers because today’s graduates do not have the skills required to work in today’
s manufacturing, we have a serious problem. Our education system must provide a
continuous supply of well-educated STEM-grounded entrants into regional talent pools. This
means a greater emphasis on science, math, and technology-related programs in K-12
curricula and a greater investment in teacher education and accountability in these areas.
Aside from the reforms needed in an outdated educational system, companies who already
employ workers that will remain in the workforce need to change paradigms. The new worker
of today is also no longer satisfied with traditional workplace models. Companies need to
court their top 25 percent of workers like they would their most valuable customers. Firms
are going beyond on-site daycare facilities and gyms, to adding laundry services, auto
detailing, and other on-site services to appeal to workers with busy lives. This reaction is due
to the fact that it’s a worker’s world now. In the past, workers moved out of state to find work;
now it’s no longer necessary. Good workers are in high demand, and this trend will continue
for many years as our baby boomers leave the workforce and the best workers are
competitively recruited. The best and brightest seek higher ground by working for the most
prestigious firms or hanging their own shingle. In fact, today over 25 percent of the workforce
works from home part of the time, either because their firm allows it or because they have
chosen to work for themselves.
Creating a Qualified Work Force
As a Certified Economic Developer, I understand the competitive world of attracting new
investment and the site selection process. I also know that a qualified skilled workforce is
the number one reason for any business expansion or location decision. It’s no longer
whether a community has a union environment or whether there are tax abatements or free
land. The primary issue today is always the ability to provide a qualified workforce. Education
and training opportunities, the reduction of costs in finding or creating clusters of inter-related
firms, and the promise of continuing a workforce development effort beyond start-up is what
appeals most to businesses considering any state. Efforts to bring together education,
training and economic development have been mediocre at best.
Creativity, innovation and adaptability are the keys to a good life, and high levels of education
are going to be the only security our kids can look forward to. We must demand rigorous
academics, not just the basics of the 3 R’s, just as we were warned 24 years ago from “A
Nation At Risk.” As the mother of two adolescent boys, I am fearful of the future that lies
ahead for them. We have far more to worry about than whether or not some of our children
are left behind; we need to consider an entire generation failing to compete in a global
economy and the impact this will have on economic based industries. Meager incremental
improvements, band-aid solutions, and the potpourri of federal programs aimed at selected
populations just won’t cut it anymore. We need bold action.
Some have stepped forward. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is committed to working
with partners in communities throughout the country to transform our education system and
improve the outlook for all students. Their foundation has invested millions of dollars to serve
as a catalyst designed to foster innovative educational opportunities for our young people,
spark public engagement, and create a seamless web of support for high-quality learning
from a child’s first years through college and the workplace. They understand that we must
either train the brainpower ourselves or import it.
But what about the American dream? In order to keep it alive and well, we must make some
tough decisions regarding our education system and the way we recruit and retain workers.
Our federal and state governments must develop a performance-based culture of
accountability that is focused on educating students in a way that prepares them for the world
of work in the 21st century, without regard to bureaucracies and special interests. We also
must offer financial incentives to attract the best and brightest teachers, and bonuses to keep
the most successful, much like any business would do. In fact, I would like to personally
present a challenge to Bill Gates—to increase the American public high school graduation
rate to 90 percent by 2015 and put the U.S. back in the top five in The Trends in International
Mathematics and Science Study carried out by the International Association for the Evaluation
of Educational Achievement (currently the U.S. stands at 19 out of 21 countries,
outperforming only Cyprus and South Africa). We spend a tremendous amount of money on
education and training in this country, so why do we continue to accept mediocrity? We
should expect the same kind of return on our investment that any successful business would
expect.
With the changes in skill demands and the dramatic demographic shifts in the next few
years, the need to increase the skills and credentials of the nation’s workforce has never
been as urgent as it is today. Although the myriad of programs and services and resources
that currently exist for workforce education and training are a good beginning, they are not yet
integrated into a fully functioning system that addresses the challenges we face as a nation.
We must think broadly about the various components of the workforce education and training
system and how all of the different programs, services and incentives work together in the
common goal of helping the nation meet the skill and labor needs of today and the future.
We simply can’t afford anything less.
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